Will the risk of armed conflict increase in a warmer world? This question is one of the most controversial in the study of interactions between the climate system and human society, and the answer is critical for estimating the economic and humanitarian toll of climate change.
This week, Nature published the results of an expert elicitation that addresses this issue. Expert elicitation has emerged as a method for gathering the collective expertise of diverse specialists to generate a synthesis of the evidence and the specialists’ often conflicting views. The goal is not to generate definitive answers, but to quantify uncertainty and highlight areas of overlap.
This project, let by the incredible Katharine Mach, was both illuminating and incredibly rewarding. I was honored to be asked and really enjoyed participating. Check out the video synopsis of the piece below.