Books
2019. Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence. New York: Oxford University Press (with Deborah Avant, Marie Berry, Erica Chenoweth, Rachel Epstein, Oliver Kaplan, and Timothy Sisk, eds).
2014. Confronting the Curse: The Economics and Geopolitics of Natural Resource Governance. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics (with Marcus Noland). Available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble.
Peer-Reviewed Articles
Conditionally Accepted. “International Studies and Struggles for Inclusion.” International Studies Review (with Tarek Abou Chadi, Kanisha Bond, Cassy Dorff, Jamie Hagen, and Cameron Thies).
Accepted. “Climate-Driven Risks to Peace Over the 21st Century. Climate Risk Management (with Halvad Buhaug, Elisabeth Gilmore, and Tor Benjaminsen).
Accepted. “The Cult of the Relevant: International Relations Scholars and Policy Engagement Beyond the Ivory Tower.” Perspectives on Politics (with Julia Macdonald, Ryan Powers, Susan Peterson, and Michael J. Tierney).
2022. “Global Climate, El Niño, and Militarized Fisheries Disputes in the East and South China Seas.” Marine Policy (with Sarah M. Glaser, Joshua E. Lambert, and Paige M. Roberts).
2021. “A Co-Designed Heuristic Guide for Investigating the Peace-Sustainability Nexus in the Context of Global Change.” Sustainability Science (with Dahlia Simangan, Hassan Virji, Moinul Islam, Shinji Kaneko, Young-sam Ma, Reinhard Mechler, Prem Pangotra, Katie Peters, Ayyoob Sharifi, and Shamsul Hadi Shams).
2021. “Exploring the Future of Fisheries Conflict through Narrative Scenarios.” One Earth 4 (3): 386-396 (with Jessica Spijkers, Andrew Merrie, Collette C.C. Wabnitz, Matthew Osborne, Malin Mobjörk, Örjan Bodin, Elizabeth Selig, Philippe Le Billon, Gerald Singh, Patrick Keys, and Tiffany Morrison).
2020. “Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict.” Earth’s Future (with Katharine J. Mach, Carolien M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger, Halvard Buhaug, Marshall Burke, James D. Fearon, Christopher B. Field, Jean-Francois Maystadt, John O'Loughlin, Philip Roessler, Jürgen Scheffran, Kenneth A. Schultz, and Nina von Uexkull.
2020. “Climate Change Increases the Risk of Fisheries Conflict.” Marine Policy (with Elizabeth Mendenhall, Elizabeth Nyman, Paige Roberts, John Robison Hoopes, James Watson, Vicky Wing Yee Lam, and U. Rashid Sumaila).
2020. “The Ins and Outs of Conceptualizing Inclusion: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Inclusive Approaches to Governance and Peacebuilding.” Journal of Global Security Studies.
2019. “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict.” Nature (with Katharine J. Mach, Carolien M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger, Halvard Buhaug, Marshall Burke, James D. Fearon, Christopher B. Field, Jean-Francois Maystadt, John O'Loughlin, Philip Roessler, Jürgen Scheffran, Kenneth A. Schultz, and Nina von Uexkull).
2019. “US Dominance in International Relations and Security Scholarship in Leading Journals.” Journal of Global Security Studies (with Jon Vreede).
2019. “Armed Conflict and Fisheries in the Lake Victoria Basin.” Ecology and Society (with Sarah M. Glaser, Les Kaufman, Brittany Franck, and Karin Wedig).
2019. “Ethnicity, Nonviolent Protest, and Lethal Repression in Africa.” Journal of Peace Research (with Idean Salehyan).
2019. “The Future is a Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability.” British Journal of Political Science (with Drew Bolsby, Erica Chenoweth, and Jonathan Moyer).
2019. “Introducing the Nonviolent Actors in Violent Contexts (NVAVC) Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research (with Erica Chenoweth and Kyleanne Hunter).
2018. “Cold War Geopolitics and the Making of the Oil Curse.” Journal of Global Security Studies (lead article).
2017. “Kicking a Crude Habit: Diversifying Away from Oil and Gas in the 21st Century.” International Review of Applied Economics.
2017. “Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict.” Conflict Management and Peace Science. Replication data.
2017. "The Streetlight Effect in Climate Change Research on Africa." Global Environmental Change. Replication data.
2017. “A House Divided: Regime Factionalism and Repression in Africa.” Journal of Conflict Resolution (with Idean Salehyan). Replication data.
2015. “No News is Good News? Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities are Less than One.” International Interactions (with Idean Salehyan).
2015. “Global Food Prices, Regime Type, and Protest in the Developing World.” Journal of Peace Research (with Stephan Haggard).
2014. “Trends and Triggers Redux: Climate Change, Rainfall and Interstate Conflict.” Political Geography (with Colleen Devlin[1]).
2014. “Climate Shocks and Political Violence.” Global Environmental Change (with Idean Salehyan).
2014. “State Capacity and Terrorism: A Two-Dimensional Approach.” Security Studies (with Joseph K. Young).
2014. “Knowing Your Audience: How the Structure of International Relations and Organizational Choices Affect Amnesty International's Advocacy.” Review of International Organizations (with Wendy H. Wong).
2013. “Food Security and Conflict Dynamics.” Stability: International Journal of Security and Development (with Henk-Jan Brinkman).
2013. “When is the Pen Truly Mighty? Regime Type and the Efficacy of Naming and Shaming in Curbing Human Rights Abuses.” British Journal of Political Science (with Wendy H. Wong).
2012. “Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database.” International Interactions (with Idean Salehyan, Jesse Hamner, Christina Case[2], Christopher Linebarger[3], Emily Stull[4], and Jennifer Williams[5]).
2012. “Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa.” Journal of Peace Research (with Idean Salehyan).
2012. “Civil War: Is it All About Disease and Xenophobia? A Comment on Letendre, Fincher & Thornhill.” Biological Reviews (with Kristian Skrede Gleditsch).
2011. “Civil Conflict and World Fisheries, 1952-2004.” Journal of Peace Research (with Sarah M. Glaser).
· Winner, Nils Petter Gleditsch Journal of Peace Research Article of the Year.
2011. “Head for the Hills? Rough Terrain, State Capacity, and Civil War Onset.” Civil Wars.
2010. “Measuring State Capacity: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Civil Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research. Translated into Spanish and reprinted in Capacidades estatales: Diez textos fundamentales (Buenos Aires: Latin American Development Bank, 2015).
2007. “Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change, and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Political Geography (with Sarah M. Glaser).
Other Publications (Policy Briefs, Commentary, etc.)
2022. “Building Downstream Capacity for Critical Minerals in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 22-16.
2022. “Climate Change and Conflict.” Nature Reviews: Earth and Environment (with Vally Koubi, Jan Selby, Ayesha Siddiqi, and Nina von Uexkull).
2022. “Chapter 16: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions.” IPCC WG II Sixth Assessment Report (with Brian O’Neill, Maarten van Aalst, Zelina Zaiton Ibrahim et al.). Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
2022. “Shift to Renewable Energy Could Be a Mixed Blessing for Mineral Exporters.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 22-1.
2022. “Climate Change and Terrorism: Three Risk Pathways to Consider.” Center for Climate & Security Briefer No. 28.
2021. “Oil Prices, Interstate Conflict, and the Iran–Iraq War.” Security Studies 30 (4): 643-649.
2021. “The Political Economy of Pandemic Preparedness and Effectiveness.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 21-10.
2021. “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 21-14.
2021. “Security Implications of Climate and Environmental Change for Latin America and the Caribbean.” United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).
2021. “Resilience and Food Security amidst Conflict and Violence: Disrupting a Vicious Cycle and Promoting Peace and Development.” USAID Policy Brief.
2020. “What US Strategy Gets Wrong About China in Africa.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 20-03.
2019. “Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 19-10.
2018. “Sins of Omission: Women’s and LGBTI Rights Reporting Under the Trump Administration.” Oxfam Research Report, November 2018 (with Marie Berry).
2018. “Searching for Climate-Conflict Links.” Nature Climate Change 8: 190-191.
2017. “A Comment on ‘Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited’.” Political Geography. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.06.010.
2017. “Agriculture in the NAFTA Renegotiation.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 17-24.
2017. "Kicking a Crude Habit: Diversifying Away from Oil and Gas in the 21st Century." Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 17-2.
2016. “Protectionism in the 2016 Election: Causes and Consequences, Truths and Fictions.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 16-20.
2016. “Putting Environmental Stress (Back) on the Mass Atrocities Agenda.” Stanley Foundation Policy Analysis Brief, October 11.
2016. “When Hunger Strikes: How Food Security Abroad Matters for National Security at Home.” Chicago Council on Global Affairs Research Brief, April 7.
2016. “Rough Patches on the Silk Road? Security Implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” In China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Motives, Scope and Challenges. Peterson Institute for International Economics Briefing 16-2, pp. 25-30.
2016. “Agriculture.” In Assessing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Volume 1: Market Access and Sectoral Issues. Peterson Institute for International Economics Briefing 16-1, pp. 41-59.
2015. “Myanmar: Cross-Cutting Governance Challenges.” Asian Development Bank Economics Working Papers Series No. 428, Manila, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. Published also by Peterson Institute for International Economics as “Myanmar: Cross-Cutting Governance Challenges.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 15-2.
2014. “Water and Security in Niger and the Sahel.” CCAPS Research Brief No. 24, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin.
2014. “Can Natural Disasters Precipitate Peace?” CCAPS Research Brief No. 21, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin (with Aleksandra Egorova).
2014. “Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 14-3.
2014. “Managing Myanmar’s Resource Boom to Lock in Reforms.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 14-11 (with Marcus Noland).
2013. “Trends and Triggers: Climate Change and Interstate Conflict.” CCAPS Research Brief No. 21, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin (with Colleen M. Devlin and Brittany Franck).
2013. “Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest.” CCAPS Research Brief No. 7, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin.
2012. “Food Insecurity and Conflict Dynamics: Causal Linkages and Complex Feedbacks.” Background paper for the FAO-WFP High Level Expert Forum on Food Insecurity in Protracted Crises (with Henk-Jan Brinkman).
2012. “Climate Shocks and Political Violence: Beyond Scarcity, Beyond Africa.” CCAPS Research Brief No. 3, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin (with Idean Salehyan).
2012. “A Population-Centric View of Social, Political, and Economic Indicators of a Fragile State.” In National Security Challenges: Insights from Social, Neurobiological, and Complexity Sciences, SMA White Paper, Department of Defense.
2011. “Applying Hubbert Curves and Linearization to Rock Phosphate.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 11-18.
2011. “Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and Global Economy.” Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief 11-12.
2011. “Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict: Causes, Consequences, and Addressing the Challenges.” World Food Programme Occasional Papers No. 24 (with Henk-Jan Brinkman).
2011. “The Brewing Storm? Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa.” CCAPS Research Brief No. 2, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, UT Austin (with Idean Salehyan).
2010. “Science and the International Politics of Climate Change.” Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations 11(2): 7-20 (with Idean Salehyan).
2010. “Food Insecurity and Conflict: Applying the WDR Framework.” Background paper for the World Bank’s World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security and Development (with Henk-Jan Brinkman).
Book Chapters
2018. “Environment and Conflict.” In Understanding War and Peace, Dan Reiter, ed.
2016. “Agriculture.” In The Trans-Pacific Partnership: An Assessment. Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs and Jeffrey Schott, eds. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
2016. “Environment and Conflict.” In What Do We Know About Civil Wars? Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and T. David Mason, eds. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield (with Scott Gates and Halvard Buhaug).
2007. “Zimbabwe.” In Civil Wars of the World: Major Conflicts since World War II, Uk Heo and Karl DeRouen, eds. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC‐CLIO (with Idean Salehyan).
BLOG POSTS, Op-Eds, and Commentaries
Forced Uyghur Labor Probably Helped Build Your Car. Foreign Policy, December 21, 2022.
Markets for Critical Minerals Are Too Prone to Failure. Barron’s, December 17, 2022 (with Morgan Bazilian).
How to Avoid a New Cold War Over Critical Minerals. Foreign Policy, November 22, 2022.
Does Trading with China Preventing Fighting with China? Peterson Institute RealTime Economics, November 9, 2022.
Guinea Faces Challenges in Building Capacity Around a Critical Mineral for Energy Transitions. Peterson Institute RealTime Economics, October 12, 2022.
Xinjiang's Problem Is Not a Few Rogue Actors. Barron’s. September 16, 2022.
Every Recent Oil and Food Price Shock Bears Putin’s Fingerprints. Foreign Policy, September 14, 2022.
New Winners, New Losers: Toward A New Energy Security. War on the Rocks, August 4, 2022 (with Morgan Bazilian).
Chinese Nationals Have Become Targets for Violence as China Deepens Its International Influence. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, June 15, 2022.
Authoritarian Leaders are Turning to Food Export Bans amid War in Ukraine. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, June 6, 2022.
India’s Wheat Export Ban: Bad Economics, Good Politics, Modest Impact. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, May 23, 2022.
Higher Oil Prices Stemming from Russia-Ukraine War May Be Temporary. RealTime Economic Issues Watch, March 3, 2022.
Russia and Ukraine are Key Exporters of Food and Energy. Will Global Prices Spike? Washington Post Monkey Cage, March 2, 2022.
The US Response to Forced Labor by Uyghurs in China Is Constructive but Incomplete. RealTime Economic Issues Watch, December 13, 2021.
The WTO Must Act to Reduce Harmful Fisheries Subsidies. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, December 1, 2021.
Third-Party Auditing Won’t Solve US Solar Industry’s Xinjiang Problem. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, June 25, 2021.
Peak Copper and Lithium? The Siren Song of the Peak Resource Arguments. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, June 2, 2021.
Is Bullying Baked into Academia? Duck of Minerva, May 11, 2021.
The Importance of Being (Pragmatically) Earnest. Duck of Minerva, February 8, 2021.
Why Some Experts Got Pandemic Readiness Wrong. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, February 3, 2021.
Managing Fisheries Conflict in the 21st Century: A Role for Regional Management Organizations? New Security Beat, February 1, 2021 (with Zachary Lien).
Climate Change as an Unconventional Security Risk. War on the Rocks, October 23, 2020.
An Age of Actorless Threats: Rethinking National Security in Light of COVID and Climate. Just Security, October 23, 2020 (with Morgan Bazilian).
Memorandum on State Department Priorities For Rebuilding The Global Economy. Peterson Institute for International Economics Rebuilding the Global Economy Series, October 20, 2020.
Beyond the Ivory Tower of International Relations. Foreign Policy, September 28, 2020 (with Julia Macdonald, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael Tierney)
A Saudi Fund Opted Not to Buy Newcastle United. How Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Affect Politics Back Home? Washington Post Monkey Cage, August 11, 2020.
Arms and Influence? Chinese Arms Transfers to Africa in Context. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, July 15, 2020.
The United States: Not a Failed State, but a Failing Society. Duck of Minerva, June 29, 2020.
Ensuring Global Food Security in the Time of COVID-19. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, April 6, 2020.
Public Health Research in Mainstream International Relations Outlets. Duck of Minerva, March 30, 2020.
Wrong Tools, Wrong Time: Food Export Bans in the Time of COVID-19. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, March 30, 2020.
Are We Radically Underestimating the Effects of Climate on Armed Conflict? New Security Beat, March 3, 2020.
Fisheries Management: A Possible Venue for Navigating Fisheries Conflicts in the Indian Ocean. New Security Beat, February 10, 2020 (with Isigi Kadagi and Zachary Lien).
Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Policy Engagement* (*But Were Too Afraid to Ask). Duck of Minerva, November 18, 2019.
Why US Energy Independence Won't Mean Greater US Energy Autonomy. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, September 23, 2019.
In Search of Consensus on Climate-Conflict Links. New Security Beat, August 12, 2019 (with John O’Loughlin).
Forget the 800-Pound Gorilla: The United States Is the 300,000-Pound Blue Whale of IR Scholarship. Duck of Minerva, July 23, 2019.
How Does Climate Change Impact Armed Conflict in the World? Washington Post Monkey Cage, July 11, 2019 (with John O’Loughlin).
Finding Consensus on Climate-Conflict Links. Center for Climate & Security, July 11, 2019.
What Food Price-Related Protests in Sudan and Liberia Tell Us About How Autocracies and Democracies Address Price Crises. Political Violence @ a Glance, June 25, 2019.
Responsible Policy Engagement: Some Challenges. Political Violence @ a Glance, June 19, 2019.
From Joseph Kony to Nile Perch: Complex Links Hook Armed Conflict to Fisheries. New Security Beat, April 1, 2019.
Why “Bread and Oil” Protests in Sudan Prompted a Cabinet Reshuffle. Political Violence @ a Glance, March 19, 2019.
Lost Job—Will Travel: Trade-Related Job Losses and Military Recruitment. Political Violence @ a Glance, January 8, 2019.
Are Sound Democratic and Legal Institutions Necessary for Growth? Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, November 9, 2018.
Conflict and Contagions: Disease Burden and Civil War. Political Violence @ a Glance, October 13, 2018.
All Sticks, No Carrots: The Shortsighted Geopolitics of the Iran Sanctions. Political Violence @ a Glance, August 21, 2018.
Freezing Iran Out of Oil Markets Won’t Work. Denver Post (print version), August 13, 2018.
What We Talk About When We Talk About Status: The Economic Anxiety vs. Status Loss Debate. Political Violence @ a Glance, June 5, 2018.
The Sophomore Curse: Sampling Bias and the Future of Climate-Conflict Research. New Security Beat and Political Violence @ a Glance, March 6, 2018.
Was the End of the Cold War the Beginning of the Oil Curse? Political Violence @ a Glance, January 16, 2018.
Searching for Silver Linings from 2017. Political Violence @ a Glance, January 2, 2018.
One in 10 Interstate Disputes Are Fishy – And the Implications Stink. New Security Beat, December 20, 2017 (with Paige Roberts).
Charismatic Megafauna in Conflict Studies, or Why WWII is the Giant Panda of the Conflict/Security Field. Political Violence @ a Glance, November 21, 2017.
Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War. Political Violence @ a Glance, September 19, 2017.
Free to Choose? Violent vs. Nonviolent Resistance and the Limits of Choice. Political Violence @ a Glance, August 29, 2017.
US-Mexico Relations and the Security Stakes of NAFTA Renegotiation. Political Violence @ a Glance, July 18, 2017.
Agriculture in the NAFTA Renegotiation. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, June 19, 2017.
What Will Changed, What Will Change, and What Likely Won’t. Political Violence @ a Glance, April 25, 2017.
Trump Administration Is Walking Away from Good Governance in Oil, Gas, and Mining. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, March 15, 2017.
The Streetlight Effect in Climate-Conflict Research on Africa. Center for Climate & Security, March 14, 2017.
Why The Research into Climate Change in Africa Is Biased, and Why It Matters. Washington Post Monkey Cage, March 9, 2017.
The New Trump Immigration Policy Is Bad for US Health. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, March 8, 2017.
What Wars Do We Know About? Political Violence @ a Glance, February 7, 2017.
Trump and Ethnicity in Comparative Perspective. Political Violence @ a Glance, November 29, 2016.
US Trade Agenda Requires Greater Focus on Social Concerns. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, November 7, 2016.
Why Americans Aren’t Nearly as Protectionist as Election Rhetoric Suggests. Peterson Institute RealTime Economic Issues Watch, November 4, 2016.
Rough Patches on the Silk Road? The Geopolitics of the Belt and Road Initiative. Political Violence @ a Glance, October 4, 2016.
Shit Happens: When Equilibrium Theories Meet Non-Equilibrium Outcomes. Political Violence @ a Glance, July 19, 2016.
Symposium: Oil and International Politics. Political Violence @ a Glance, May 3, 2016.
Why Engagement Can’t Wait—Walt on Tenure and Bridging the Gap. Political Violence @ a Glance, February 23, 2016.
Does Emergency Food Assistance Prolong Conflict? Political Violence @ a Glance, November 24, 2015.
The Problem with the Problem of Bridging the Gap. Political Violence @ a Glance, September 22, 2015.
Google Scholar Metrics and Scholarly Productivity in International Relations. Duck of Minerva, August 8, 2015.
Does Democracy Constrain Rulers or Pacify Dissidents? Political Violence @ a Glance, July 21, 2015.
Extractive Industries in Violent Contexts: A Conversation with Luke Danielson. Political Violence @ a Glance, May 19, 2015.
Where is the Muslim Gandhi? Political Violence @ a Glance, April 14, 2015.
In Food Riots, Researchers Find a Divide Between Democracies and Autocracies. New Security Beat, February 24, 2015.
When and Why Food Prices Lead to Social Upheaval. Washington Post Monkey Cage, February 22, 2015.
Falling Oil Prices, More Peace? Washington Post Monkey Cage, December 3, 2014.
Opportunity Costs: Evidence Suggests Variability, Not Scarcity, Primary Driver of Water Conflict. New Security Beat, September 2, 2014.
How ‘Rogue’ Is China’s Aid? Washington Post Monkey Cage, June 10, 2014.
[1] Undergraduate student.
[2] Graduate student.
[3] Graduate student.
[4] Graduate student.
[5] Undergraduate student.